Fertilizer: Gas shortage a major concern for the industry

Fertilizer demand picks up pre-Kharif sowing season: During the month of April, Urea and DAP dispatches rose 8% YoY and 147% YoY respectively as farmers started their accumulation for Kharif sowing. 4MCY11 cumulative offtake of Urea and DAP declined 8% YoY and 5% YoY, constrained by lower availability due to plant shutdowns.

Firm prices continue to offset losses from Gas shortage: During Apr-11, average Urea prices, though up a mere 8% MoM, were a staggering 53% higher on YoY basis. DAP prices, on the other hand, increased by 14% MoM and 55% YoY to PKR4,050/bag.

SNGP gas cuts a major concern for ENGRO: Despite favorable decision from Sindh High Court in April-11, barring SNGP to cut Enven’s gas supply, Engro’s 1.3mn ton expansion continued to suffer from gas supply cuts with gas being restored only recently. Continuous gas supply is a pre requisite for the plant to achieve COD.

fertilizer-gas-shortage-a-major-concern-for-the-industry

Fertilizer demand picks up pre-Kharif sowing season

During April-11, urea offtake increased by 8% YoY to 487k tons, while DAP sales surged by a significant 147% to 55k tons mainly due to low base effect. Jump in total dispatches was witnessed as farmers started their accumulation of agri-inputs for Kharif sowing season which start in April with sowing of Rice and Cotton. Urea shall be the key beneficiary of Kharif sowing season being the main input for Cotton and rice sowing. 4MCY11 cumulative offtake of Urea and DAP declined 8% YoY and 5% YoY respectively, constrained by lower availability due to plant shutdowns.

fertilizer-gas-shortage-a-major-concern-for-the-industry 1

Fertilizer demand picks up pre-Kharif sowing season

During April-11, urea offtake increased by 8% YoY to 487k tons, while DAP sales surged by a significant 147% to 55k tons mainly due to low base effect. Jump in total dispatches was witnessed as farmers started their accumulation of agri-inputs for Kharif sowing season which start in April with sowing of Rice and Cotton. Urea shall be the key beneficiary of Kharif sowing season being the main input for Cotton and rice sowing. 4MCY11 cumulative offtake of Urea and DAP declined 8% YoY and 5% YoY respectively, constrained by lower availability due to plant shutdowns.

Economic & Political News

IPPs demand review of contract

Four Independent Power Producers (IPPs) have demanded of the Private Power Infrastructure Board (PPIB) to review their contractual framework and exempt them from ‘liquidated damages’, if any of them is unavailable for dispatch because of the delay in payment by the sole power purchaser, the National Transmission and Dispatch Company (NTDC). The demand for changes in their contractual framework has been made by four, of the five furnace oil-fired thermal power projects — Atlas Power, Liberty Power, Nishat Power and Nishat Chunian — set up under the 2002 power policy. These IPPs have already served first notice to the government for invoking sovereign guarantee due to delay in the payment of their power dues of more than Rs16 billion. If NTDC fails to release their dues by June 13, these IPPs are set to serve the second and final notice on June 14 for invoking sovereign guarantee in 10 days under their Power Purchase Agreement (PPA).
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